“The Middle East, the great oil center, there is also an acute contest between the superpowers and powers bound to the issues of the Near East and to nationalist and even reactionary movements (…)
Any one of these points of conflict could provide the spark to an imperialist World War, a situation that will occur when the strategic superiority of one of the superpowers is defined. Therefore, it is increasingly urgent and peremptory to rely upon Communist parties based on Marxism-Leninism-Maoism that are forged for and in people’s war through their militarization. Strategically defining the zones of principal and secondary importance to make the world revolution is key to establishing the role that each region and each party should play in the world revolution.
For the Communist Parties, the problem is not to focus attention on the imperialist World War but onto people’s war, since only from this shall proletarian-led power derive. We consider that while there is imperialism, there is a likelihood that imperialist World Wars will develop.”
(PCP – International Line 1988)
After the so-called “Twelve-Day War” between Iran and the US and its accomplice, the Zionist genocidal state of Israel, communists around the world need to understand the developments in the region and their consequences, both regionally and internationally. We are currently in the midst of the strategic offensive of the proletarian world revolution, in a process where imperialism is disintegrating piece by piece. As dialectical materialists, we understand that the disintegration of imperialism is not only gradual but also occurs in leaps, where quantity turns into quality. When we analyze international developments, we do so from this perspective.
Imperialism, a system in decay and decline, is desperately trying to hold back the wheels of history. In constant competition with each other for the spoils, the oppressed nations, they are trying to move their pieces forward in the face of an impending world war. Why is an imperialist world war on the agenda? The imperialists cannot survive without constant growth. Imperialism is a zero-sum game between imperialists, in which they can only win at each other’s expense. This means that imperialism inevitably leads to war. Today, as the internal contradictions of the imperialists intensify, which we see in the form of trade deficits and surpluses, stagnation, etc., they need to solve their problems through external methods, by grabbing a share of the spoils from their imperialist competitors. Because of this fact, the imperialists cannot form any real alliances, but can only conspire, yet when it comes down to it, there is always a dispute whereby they stab each other in the back.
BACKGROUND TO THE “TWELVE-DAY WAR”
In the Middle East, the world’s most oil-rich region, the war is not over. This has long been a battleground between many imperialists for control. Since the rise of imperialism in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, which culminated in the Middle East with the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, various imperialists have ravaged the people of the region. During World War I, the strongest imperialist powers at the time, France and Britain, conspired in the Sykes-Picot Agreement, where they carved up and drew national borders in the region at their own discretion.
The modern state of Iran was founded in 1906, a few years after British merchant William Knox D’Arcy found traces of oil in southern Persia during the period when the British were transitioning from coal to oil. The following year, the future oil king was granted permission by the Shah to exploit the country’s oil reserves for 60 years. In 1909, the British finally found oil – black gold – in southern Iran. In the years that followed, the British oil company Anglo-Persian Oil Company (later British Petroleum) was established – a state monopoly company – which for many years had a monopoly on oil in the region. During this period, British and Swedish imperialism conspired, with the Swedish state leading the establishment of the Iranian gendarmerie in its early years.
When the British brought capitalism to Iran, they did so on a feudal basis that still exists today. On this feudal basis, a bureaucratic capitalism has developed that is closely linked to the landowning classes. With the rise of bureaucratic capitalism, Iran was transformed from a feudal country into a semi-colonial, semi-feudal country, mainly due to the dominance of British imperialism, especially economically and militarily.
The British oil monopoly in Iran was so important to British imperialism that during both the First and Second World Wars, Britain occupied and defended Iran’s oil fields. After World War II, British control of oil in Iran grew. The British oil monopoly in Iran produced the most oil in the world, outside of Texas, at that time. Its oil reserves were the fourth largest in the world, after the United States, the Soviet Union, and Venezuela. The oil fields were therefore an extremely important part of the machinery of British imperialism.
During the 1950s, strong opposition developed against the presence of British imperialism in the country. Unfortunately, this opposition was usurped by the bureaucratic faction within the big bourgeoisie. This led to the oil fields being confiscated from the British and turned into bureaucratic capital. This upset the British and Americans, who understood that it was more difficult to negotiate with the bureaucratic bourgeoisie than with the comprador bourgeoisie, especially when it came to a strategically important asset such as oil. In 1953, a coup d’état was carried out under the leadership of the CIA and MI6, which, for example, mobilized the worst mafias in Tehran to force people to participate in pro-Shah demonstrations. The Shah once again became the title of the highest representative of the Iranian state.
With this, British influence over Iran was taken over by US imperialism. Through its puppet, the Shah, it was able to gain strong control over the oil fields and access to important military outposts. The Shah gave great support to the Zionist project of Israel, another tool of US imperialism in the region. But his regime would not last forever. During the 1970s, strong anti-imperialist resistance to the Shah grew. The people rose up in guerrilla warfare, strikes, etc. But this resistance was usurped by the bureaucratic faction of the big bourgeoisie, which had the clergy as its social base, when the Shah’s fall was inevitable. Although US imperialism conspired with Khomeini weeks before the change of power and supported his journey from France to Iran, the result was that by 1979 US imperialism had lost its loyal bastion. Better, they thought, than for genuine people’s power to develop.
The following year, 1980, saw the start of a war between Iraq and Iran, orchestrated by US imperialism, which played both sides in the war, with direct support for Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and support for Iran via its loyal ally, the settler state of Israel. The purpose of this war was 1) to overthrow the power of the Iranian bureaucratic capitalist faction in Iran, 2) to subjugate bureaucratic capitalism in Iraq. During the war, US imperialism supplied biological and weapons of mass destruction to Iraq. What was the stated aim of US imperialism? According to Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, “The United States’ greatest interest is that both sides lose.” The result of this US-directed war was the deaths of 800,000 to 1,000,000 people. Swedish monopoly capital was also involved in this genocide. The Swedish company Bofors AB supplied weapons to both sides in the war, via Singapore as an intermediary, while Scania sold trucks to both sides for military use.
Iran has become part of the “axis of evil” alongside China, Russia, and North Korea for US imperialism, especially after joining the SCO (2023) and BRICS (2024). Despite its relative isolation, it remains an important player in the Middle East.
STRUGGLES WITHIN THE RULING CLASS OF IRAN
During the “Twelve-Day War,” several high-ranking representatives of the bureaucratic bourgeoisie in Iran were assassinated by Zionist forces. Israel’s success in these attacks suggests that Mossad, its intelligence service, has a relatively strong presence in Iran and has infiltrated its state apparatus. It is not the case that Israel and US imperialism are without support, especially in Tehran. How is this possible? Lenin explains that “politics is a concentrated and expressive form of economics,” and Mao teaches us through the use of the quote “war is politics by other means.” We analyze the economy to understand politics.
The Iranian economy provides 10% and 15% of the world’s discovered oil and gas reserves, respectively. Its largest export partners are China (36%), Turkey (20%), Pakistan (10%), and the United Arab Emirates (10%), and its largest import partner is China (28%). Petroleum accounts for over half of the country’s exports. Due to current sanctions against Iran, trade with the EU has declined significantly. The EU’s trade with Iran, which is extremely dependent on electricity, peaked in 2016-17 and would benefit from lifting the sanctions imposed by US imperialism.
Within the Iranian bourgeoisie, as within the bourgeoisie of all oppressed nations, there are two factions: the bureaucratic and the comprador. These two factions want to sell off the country’s resources in different ways to serve their own factions. This means that even though the Iranian bourgeoisie belongs to one and the same class, the different factions can conspire with different imperialists to outmaneuver the other. The bureaucratic bourgeoisie is linked to the state apparatus and is represented politically by Khamenei. The comprador bourgeoisie, which is linked to foreign imperialist capital and is weaker within Iran, does not hold governmental power and would therefore benefit from a regime change. It naturally has the support of the imperialists in the West who want Iran to “open up its economy” by allowing a sell-off of Iranian bureaucratic capital. In the bourgeois imperialist media and in the Iranian media, these are usually referred to as reformists (not reformists in the Marxist sense, but in the sense of reforming the state in a reactionary liberal direction). The comprador bourgeoisie would have liked to see Iran divided, as long as they could participate in selling off the country. It is not a wild guess that the comprador faction within the big bourgeoisie collaborated with Mossad during the “Twelve-Day War” and thus helped to leak information about where high-ranking officials were located and so on. This did not escape Khamenei’s attention. During the “Twelve-Day War,” over 700 dissidents were arrested in Iran for security reasons and on charges of collaborating with the invader. Many of these dissidents were in the Kurdish areas.
We have previously written about the Kurdish national liberation movement and its relation to US-imperialism in Kommunisten. What is clear is that the leadership of many Kurdish organizations has completely capitulated and sold out to imperialism. In Turkey, the PKK has carried out weapons burning ceremonies while Kurdish villages are being demolished; in Rojava in Syria and in the Kurdish-controlled areas of Iraq, the Kurds are allowing US imperialism to seize their oil. During the “Twelve-Day War,” the PJAK stated that their hope was that Israel could overthrow the regime in Iran, which would have led to the comprador faction within the big bourgeoisie seizing power, similar to what happened in December in Syria. The PJAK is probably opportunistically hoping that they can grab a piece of the pie if this were to happen.
It is the main contradiction that determines the strategy. When US imperialism and Israel invade, the principal enemy becomes the invading power. The strategy then becomes to unite as many people as possible in a national united front under the leadership of the proletariat. This is what happened in China when the Japanese invaded and the CCP entered into a temporary alliance with the Guomindang. In Iran today, there is no communist party and thus no people’s army. This allows the Islamic Republic to divide the resistance against the aggressor by committing constant crimes against its own people. This only highlights the necessity of a communist party and a people’s army. “Without a people’s army, the people have nothing” (Mao Zedong). The problem of uniting the national liberation front stems from the fact that there is no communist party, with real leadership of the proletariat, that can unite all the classes that make up the people, as well as the broadest possible front against the invader.
WHAT DOES THE “TWELVE-DAY WAR” TEACH US ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION?
Ahead of this year’s so-called “Twelve-Day War,” Israel closed its embassies around the world. The Palestinian solidarity movement had forced several governments, especially within the EU, to condemn the state of Israel and its genocide. But as soon as Israel dropped the first bomb on Tehran in June, these governments praised its military actions. This is yet another proof of the moral crisis of imperialism, with Israel and the US violating all the laws of “international law” and “international justice” when they bomb nuclear facilities. This indicates, as we will see later, the balance of power between the imperialists. This was done two days before the US and Iran were to negotiate a new nuclear agreement. But again, what is negotiated at the negotiating table is what has been won on the battlefield.
It is clear that the imperialists, led by the US, want a quick decision in Iran. Bourgeois military theory needs to promote short-term wars because they are strategically weak – unlike the military theory of the proletariat, which is long-term because it is strategically strong. US imperialism does not want to get involved in another Afghanistan or Iraq, where the war is bound to be protracted, leading to its inevitable defeat. Instead, they want to make a quick strike to force regime change – whereby the comprador faction takes over state power. Such a strike will therefore need to be extremely brutal – which they obviously have no problem with, as they have already bombed nuclear facilities without hesitation (!).
It is clear that an “anti-Iran” front is being formed to advance military positions and eliminate wild cards in the region. From the weapons burning ceremonies among the Kurds, to the destruction of Syria, to the overthrow of its allies (Hezbollah), and even the actions of the Azeris, all point to this. The conflict between Azerbaijan and Russia has intensified recently. Azerbaijan has signed trade agreements with Al-Jolani in Syria, which will bring its economy closer to the EU. Iran has a large Azeri population, and the idea of separatism has long been on the lips of the Azeri state. It is worth bearing in mind Iran’s support for Armenia as Azerbaijan carries out ethnic cleansing against the Armenians in Artshak. Here, it is worth following developments in the so-called “peace agreement” between Armenia and Azerbaijan drafted by US imperialism. This agreement aims to draw a clear line in the campaign to isolate Iran.
The ‘Twelve Days’ War teaches us a lot about the EU’s position in imperialism. The EU, which has a strong interest in improving relations with Iran, had, in the days before the escalation of the war, condemned Israel’s war crimes in Gaza, one member state after another. But as soon as the war escalated, they fell in line behind US imperialism. This is a cover for its relative weakness. The same applies to Russia. The Russian state took a long time to condemn the war crimes of Israel and the US. Russia, which has long had military ties with Iran, did not lift a finger – similar to its actions in Syria and Armenia. The Iranians were dissatisfied and frustrated by delays in Russian military equipment such as the S-400 system and Su-35 aircraft. This has created great frustration on the part of the Islamic Republic. This shows how Russian imperialism is either too weak to act in this situation or how Iran is not of particular importance to them. Russian imperialism clearly finds it difficult to fight on several fronts at the same time.
As for China, its largest trading partner, which also did not intervene in the conflict, it appears that its military ties will be strengthened. Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasir Zadeh met with his Chinese counterpart during a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Beijing on June 26. They are said to have discussed potential military purchases, including J-10 fighter jets and advanced AWACS systems. On July 9, Arab media claimed that China sent surface-to-air missile systems to Iran at the end of June to restore its deteriorated air defense – however, this has been denied by Chinese and Iranian media.
For Swedish imperialism, a full-scale war in Iran could have had major consequences. In a war that is existential for the Islamic Republic and, for the people, a war against the most brutal of enemies, the ends would justify the means. The Persian Gulf, which is the source of 21 million barrels of oil, slightly more than 20% of the world’s oil, will be a clear target for attack. A war in this region could create an oil crisis the world has never seen before. Consider how much of the Swedish economy, for example, is built on imports for consumption, which depend on low shipping costs. It is obvious what consequences a war, with rising fuel prices as a result, could have for the large e-commerce sector.
To return to the opening quote – imperialists around the world are preparing for a coming world war. It is within these preparations that these conflicts are developing, and it is from this perspective that the analysis must be conducted. Any restraint on the part of some imperialists stems from their unwillingness to go to war. Russian imperialism is too weak to fight on several fronts at once, and the weakness and dependence of the European imperialists on US imperialism is obvious to anyone with eyes to see (such as the EU’s capitulation to US tariff policy). Chinese imperialism, even though it is now increasing military cooperation, stood by and watched during the conflict. The war is by no means over. The fighting will soon flare up again.
For the Iranian people, the task of reconstituting the Communist Party of Iran remains at the top of the agenda. Only through the Communist Party can the Iranian people, under the leadership of the proletariat, unite all forces that can be united on the basis of defensive war and expel the invaders. From there, it can lead the new democratic revolution to complete victory.